Baseball Betting: The Elusive Four-Game Road Sweep


It is rather rare to get a road team to sweep a four-game string. Someone once mentioned he had been deciding on a hometeam X Game 4 of the series after losing the first few games because he believed that there was no way the team would get trapped into a 4 game series.

This sounds like just one of the gamblers fallacies. By way of example, the likelihood that a good coin lands on heads 10 successive times is 1/1024. People realize that it is not possible to get a coin to land heads 10 successive times therefore when they see that a coin landing heads 9 consecutive occasions, the novice (naïve) gambler would bet a lot of money on tails citing that the law of averages indicates more tails will come. Together with coins, each other is a completely isolated and independent event from some other flip. The simple fact that 9 heads came up at a row has absolutely no bearing on the outcome of the 10th flip.ทางเข้า fifa55

Baseball can be different because we’re dealing with people. Losing 3 matches in a row in your home can be a powerful motivating factor to play your hardest in the 4th game so that you are not swept, etc..

Taking a look at the statistics, what I discovered was startling. Road Teams trying to find a sweep at the fourth match of a set is 57-45, +8.4 Units on the previous 7 seasons. This indicates that this road team has roughly 8 points of value.

Assessing it further, I realized that our team performs in Game #4 if both teams have been branch competitions and this contributes to a 34-23 listing, +11.0 Units. The possible explanation for this are the simple fact in order to win 4 matches in a row on the trail you would want to get a killer instinct also that it is far simpler to have the killer instinct against a division opponent compared to a non-division rival.

But my advice would be to never stick to the public about generalities such as these. A traditional case of that is that the fact in the Pistons-Lakers championship set a few years before, the prevailing statistic was that no other team had ever won 3 home matches in a row in the 2-3-2 format. A good friend of mine bet large on the Lakers each of the 3 matches only to reduce.

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